Recherche en cours

  • NOUVEAU "Tax-Benefit Linkage and Incidence of Social Security contributions: Evidence from France", avec Thomas Breda et Julien Grenet [Présentation]

  • We study the earnings responses to three large increases in employer social security contributions (SSCs) in France over the period 1976-2010. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy exploiting between-worker variation in employer SSC rates over time, we find evidence of full shifting to workers of increases in employer SSCs in the case of strong and salient tax-benefit linkage. In contrast, we find evidence of increased labor cost, i.e., the absence of full tax shifting to workers, at the individual level, within five to six years after reforms that increased SSCs with little or no tax-benefit linkage. Our estimates point to limited shifting of SSCs to workers in the form of lower wages, with an estimated worker share of the tax burden between 6 percent and 21 percent. Together with a meta-analysis of the literature, we interpret these results as providing evidence that the salience of tax-benefit linkage matters for incidence.

  • REVISE "Policy discontinuity et duration outcomes", avec Gerard van den Berg et Monica Costa Dias (R&R Quantitative Economics)

  • Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before et after the policy change, if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects et no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change et by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identification of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

  • "Taxes and Technological Determinants of Wage Inequalities: France 1976--2010", avec Thomas Breda et Malka Guillot.

  • This paper makes two simple points. First, labour demand depends on product wage or labour cost. Hence, demand-side explanations for the rise in inequalities such as skill-biased technical change et job polarization should betested using data on labour cost et not net wage or posted wage. Contrary to previous studies, we find evidence of skill-biased technical change in France when we measure wage inequality in terms of labour cost. In that respect,France is no exception. Second, the French case provides a clear evidence that changes in taxation can have very significant effect in converting market inequalities into consumption or net wages inequalities. In France, netwage inequalities have decreased by about 10 percent, while labour cost inequalities have increased by 15 percent over the 1976-2010 period. This fact provides support both for the supporters of the skill-biased technical change explanations of the secular increase in wage inequalities, as well to those who believe that institutions could have significant impact on inequalities in disposable incomes.

  • "Impact of research tax credit on R&D and innovation: evidence from the 2008 French reform", avec Delphine Irac et Loriane Py.

  • This paper presents an ex post evaluation of the 2008 reform of the French research tax credit. The tax scheme was massively overhauled, with a switch to a pure volume-based design,leading to a large increase in the number of firms applying et an important increase in the cost of the scheme. Given the timing et the characteristics of the reform, measuring itscausal impact is challenging. We have relied on four unique sources of data — R&D surveys, administrative tax data, firm characteristics et patent datasets — to assess how Frenchfirms have reacted to these changes in incentives. Our empirical strategies rest on combining difference in differences with matching methods et taking advantage of the particular waythe 2008 reform has affected incentives to invest in R&D. Our results suggest a positive effect of the 2008 reform on R&D at both the intensive margin et extensive margin, but a possiblelower impact on innovation than could have been expected.

  • "Reforming incapacity benefits in the UK: the evaluation of the Pathways to Work programme", avec Stuart Adam et Carl Emmerson.

  • From October 2003 the UK piloted a major reform, called "Pathways to Work", to the Disability Insurance system in place in the UK. This programmeboth provides greater support (financial et non-financial) et imposes greater obligations to encourage new claimants of incapacitybenefits to move into paid work. Using a difference-in-differences methodology the programme is found to accelerate the rate of outflow fromDisability Insurance benefits, but only for individuals who would have left the benefit rolls in less than a year in any case. On the other hand, theprogramme has a positive impact on employment that is still evident 18 months after the start of their benefit claim. Our preferred explanation forthese results is that women who would have left benefit anyway but not returned to paid work, are now returning to employment because of theprogramme. Using a cost-benefit analysis based on simulating the effect of the policy on incapacity benefit recipients et micro-simulating the tax etbenefit system, we find that the programme exhibits positive financial gain for both the individuals et the government, even under conservativeassumptions.